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Research results show that entry scores do not determine future academic success

August 19, 2024
The first phase of university admissions has concluded. While some applicants are thrilled to have received invitations to their desired study programs, others may have fallen short in terms of scores or lacked the courage to pursue their dream professions. Juras Lukaševičius, a Data analysis technologies student and now a graduate of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (VILNIUS TECH), in his bachelor thesis explored the factors influencing academic success and early dropout rates. Alongside his supervisor, Associate professor Dr. Tomas Rekašius, J. Lukaševičius sought to answer whether entry scores predict academic success. The young researcher used eight years of data to analyse twelve different fields of study within VILNIUS TECH's programs.

J. Lukaševičius was encouraged to explore this topic by his thesis supervisor, Dr. T. Rekašius. While studying natural sciences, he observed that not all students successfully completed each semester, with some dropping out before finishing their studies. He also noticed that students who regularly attended classes tended to achieve better results and also those who dropped out were not necessarily the weakest academically. Lukaševičius points out that dropping out is detrimental not only to students but also to the university and even Lithuania, representing both economic and social losses. By identifying the factors that influence student success, measures can be taken to support students at risk, thereby improving overall educational outcomes and reducing dropout rates.

Entry scores are not significant for future academic success

The initial research findings surprised the VILNIUS TECH student: entry scores, reflecting high school performance, had no statistically significant impact on students' academic success at the university. After analysing graduation data from four cohorts of two study programs, each with over 100 students, J. Lukaševičius found that entrance scores had no influence on future academic achievements or the likelihood of successfully completing university. This unexpected result led him to analyse ten more VILNIUS TECH study programs, including those in engineering, mathematics, computer science, social sciences, business, and public management. The trend held true across all programs. The research contradicts the common belief that high school achievements are a decisive factor in a student's future career; they only determine university admission but do not guarantee future success.

J. Lukaševičius emphasises that entering university should be seen as a fresh start since success in higher education depends more on student engagement and personal motivation. This insight is encouraging news for new students who may not have had stellar high school results and are worried about their future. He stresses that anyone can excel in a university environment, regardless of their past academic performance.

What contributes to successful graduation?

In seeking answers to what determines academic success, it becomes clear that there is no universal list of factors that can accurately predict whether a student will drop out. However, certain recurring factors significantly impact student’s future. One of the most important is the correlation between average grades and academic success. Students with higher grades during their studies are less likely to drop out. Particularly crucial are the grades from the first semester; students with a higher first-semester average are more likely to succeed in subsequent semesters. Just as in school, avoiding gaps in knowledge makes it easier to grasp new topics. However, students who immediately face difficulties may encounter challenges that increase the risk of dropping out. Therefore, early academic results serve as an important signal for universities to identify and assist students at risk.

"I am glad that my bachelor's thesis, 'Statistical analysis of VILNIUS TECH educational data' can benefit future students'. The research showed that academic success at university is achievable for anyone willing to put in the effort. It shifts the focus to current and future actions. Students can shape their future through hard work, resilience to challenges, and the use of available resources. This insight not only motivates students to adopt a growth mindset but also encourages educational institutions to support and nurture all students, recognising that past results do not limit future potential," says VILNIUS TECH graduate Juras Lukaševičius.

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