WHat-if: Advanced Simulations for Testing the Effect of the Information Environment on the Functioning of Democracy

The rise of disinformation and hate speech poses significant challenges to our democracies. The rapidly evolving political information environment poses significant challenges to democratic citizenship, e.g., the spread of disinformation, the rise of hate speech, and the lack of cross-cutting information. Methodological challenges, including proprietary data, limited external validity of experiments, and the inability to use societies as experimental playgrounds, hinder our ability to comprehensively understand the impact of interventions and regulations in improving the quality of democratic discourse.

WHAT-IF develops and critically assesses an empirically grounded simulation functioning as a digital twin of the digital political information environment. This ‘WHAT-IF machine’ can be used to test the effects of potential policy and regulatory interventions on democratic citizenship, offering a tool for evidence-based policy making in the realm of (social) media quality and regulation.

Our innovative approach combines data donation, Agent-Based Modeling and Large Language Models to create the simulation. It is validated using immersive virtual field experiments and by modelling ‘what-if’ scenarios based on proposed policy interventions and regulations. Co-creation with stakeholders, including policy makers and citizens, ensures close alignment with their needs. Finally, a critical analysis of the whole empirical chain will give insight into the desirability and legal feasibility of datafication and simulation of the political information environment.

Our insights into the role of the political information environment in shaping democratic citizenship will contribute to effective (social) media regulation and interventions. We will significantly contribute to novel Computational Social Science methods: we will integrate advanced AI tools with existing modelling approaches, and use respondent-centred data collection and synthetic data methods to harmonise CCS research with GDPR and other regulations.

Read more:

• https://what-if-horizon.eu/
• Information about the project in the CORDIS system
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/what-if-horizon/
• Bsky: https://bsky.app/profile/what-if-horizon.bsky.social